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      亞洲宏觀洞察:最壞的時候過去了嗎?.pdf 58頁

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      12 June 2020 Asia Macro Insight Overview: Tech offers some upside risk to a bleak outlook An easing or termination of lockdown restrictions around the region is allowing for Juliana Lee, Hong Kong a rebound in domestic economic activities in Asia, although there is considerable +852 2203 8312 uncertainty with regards to the pace of recovery. Data suggest that the economic normalization in China has continued through May, with car sales, property sales, Michael Spencer, Hong Kong +852 2203 8303 industrial production all above year-ago levels. South Korea is trailing behind, challenged by the emergence of another new cluster of Covid-19 infections in a We would like to thank Simon Carter and country that thought it had the virus contained. Hong Kong offers an example of Anthony Chaimowitz of dbDIG Primary how a second wave outbreak can quickly halt an economy from its recovery path Research for their contribution to the (see our May Asia Macro Insight for details). overview India and Indonesia haven't contained their outbreaks and yet are opening up and higher rates of new infection in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines as they open up from 'lockdown' threaten to at least restrain the recoveries there if people respond by returning to isolation. The economic cost of containment is proving too much for some countries and they may end up in the worst of worlds – a massive decline in incomes yielding only a fleeting pause in the epidemic. Household sentiment is the main driver of economic activity through this crisis, as voluntary decisions may be more important than government-mandated social distancing policies. We have been surveying households in China and South Korea for a couple of months now to try to offer a guide to how households respond to h


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